Heat pump installation cost dataset

One machine, or two

National wages, 2,000 square feet, mixed climate. Every row comes from a model on this site, and all four share the same BLS wage, the same benefit load and the same contractor markup.

The all-electric heat pump comes to 94% of the two separate machines, which surprises most people. The reason is unglamorous: one outdoor unit, one indoor unit, one crew, one day, one permit. The furnace-plus-AC route buys two heat exchangers, two sets of controls and a flue. ⚠️ This is installation cost only. What it costs to run afterwards depends on your own gas and electricity rates, which are neither national nor stable, and this site does not invent them.

Why it needs backup, by climate

A heat pump is sized on the cooling load, because a machine big enough for the coldest night would be badly oversized in July. This table is the consequence, stated rather than implied.

Both columns are screening estimates: the heating load uses 25–45 BTU/h per square foot in a mixed climate and 40–60 in a cold one, and the capacity is nominal. ⚠️ And nominal capacity is measured at 47 °F. Below that it falls, most steeply on the cheapest tier — so the real coverage on a design-temperature night is lower than every figure in that column. This is the entire argument for the cold-climate tier, and the entire explanation for a first winter electricity bill that nobody warned you about.

The three equipment tiers

All-electric configuration, reference house, mixed climate. Only the outdoor unit changes.

10 CFR 430.32(c)(5) sets 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 as the floor for split-system heat pumps. Unlike air conditioners, where the same regulation imposes a higher minimum in the Southeast and Southwest, this one is a single national number — so on this page your location changes the labour and nothing else. Retrieved 2026-08-23.

By house size

Notice how flat the columns are. Between the smallest and the largest house here the all-electric figure moves by $3,713, on a house two and a half times the size. Crew, day, permit, electrical work, recovery and commissioning are near-identical whatever the equipment size; only the two boxes scale, and they are a minority of the bill. This is why quoting heat pumps by the square foot produces nonsense at both ends.

The tax credit, and its closing date

Nothing in this dataset is netted against any incentive. The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit gave up to $2,000 on a qualifying heat pump, and the IRS states that the credit is allowed for qualifying property “The credit is allowed for qualifying property placed in service on or after Jan. 1, 2023, and before December 31, 2025”. Work placed in service in 2026 falls outside it. We say so on both this page and the calculator because the majority of heat pump cost pages on the web were written while the credit was live, still quote it, and therefore present figures net of a discount that no longer exists — which makes them look cheaper than they are. Read it at IRS, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, retrieved 2026-08-23. We are not tax advisers and this is not tax advice. State and utility programmes are separate, still exist in many places, and are not tracked here.

Line items

77% of the all-electric total comes from estimated rather than official figures. Each of those estimates carries its own uncertainty band.

The reasoning behind each figure

Written out so an HVAC contractor can point at the exact assumption that is wrong.

Outdoor heat pump, federal minimum ratingestimated, ±28%

• A heat pump costs more per ton than the equivalent air conditioner because it has to run backwards as well: a reversing valve, a defrost control, a bigger outdoor coil and a base pan heater so the meltwater does not freeze the unit to its own pad.
• This is the single-stage floor. It is honest and it is cheap, and it is also the tier that loses the most output on the coldest nights, which is the trade-off the backup heat exists to cover.

Outdoor heat pump, two-stageestimated, ±24%

• Around 16 SEER2. The step that most people should look at first: it holds usable capacity further down the temperature scale than the minimum tier, which directly reduces how often the expensive backup runs.

Outdoor heat pump, cold-climate inverterestimated, ±25%

• Specified by its capacity at 5 °F, not by a seasonal average. Roughly 60 to 70% more per ton than the minimum tier.
• It is the difference between a heat pump that heats your house in January and one that hands the job to the backup and watches. Where winters are real, this tier is the reason the running cost argument works at all.

Matched indoor coil on the existing furnaceestimated, ±35%

• The dual-fuel case: the coil sits on top of the furnace you already own, so the heating plant, the flue and the ducts all stay.
• It must be a coil certified with this outdoor unit. The rating on the box outside is only true with the coil it was tested against.

Air handler with resistance backup elementsestimated, ±42%

• Cabinet, coil, variable-speed blower and a bank of electric elements — typically 10 to 20 kW depending on the climate and the house.
• The blower matters more than people expect. A heat pump delivers air that is warm rather than hot, so it has to move a lot more of it than a furnace does, continuously. A cheap blower is how a correctly sized heat pump ends up feeling draughty.

Dual-fuel control and outdoor sensorestimated, ±48%

• A thermostat that can drive both machines and knows which one is cheaper right now, plus the outdoor sensor that tells it the temperature.
• Cheap hardware, and the setting on it is worth more than the hardware: put the crossover too high and you burn gas on a mild day, too low and you run the heat pump when the furnace was cheaper. It should be set from your actual gas and electricity rates, not from a default.

Controls, wiring and crossover setup

• An hour and a half. A heat pump needs more conductors between thermostat and equipment than a furnace does — reversing valve, backup stage, sometimes two — and an old two-wire thermostat cable will not do it.

Feeder and breakers for the backup elementsestimated, ±45%

• Fifteen kilowatts of resistance heat is around 62 amps at 240 volts. That is a feeder and usually two breakers, not a spare slot.
• The band assumes the panel has both room and capacity. When it does not, a panel upgrade is a separate job and the commonest reason an all-electric quote comes back far above expectation. It is listed as an exclusion for exactly that reason.

Disconnect, whip and breaker for the outdoor unitestimated, ±44%

• The pull-out disconnect within sight of the unit, the whip into it, and the breaker sized to the plate on the new equipment.

Electrical work

• An hour and a half in a dual-fuel job, five and a half when a backup feeder has to be run to the air handler and terminated at both ends.

Refrigerant line setestimated, ±39%

• Insulated copper pair. On a heat pump the insulation matters more than on an air conditioner, because in winter the larger pipe carries hot gas out to the house and anything lost on the way is lost heat.

Running and brazing the line set

• Three hours on a straightforward route, brazed under flowing nitrogen so the inside of the pipe does not scale.

Flushing and pressure-testing the existing line setestimated, ±48%

• Solvent and nitrogen. Small money, and the step that decides whether reusing the pipe was clever or catastrophic.

Bi-flow filter drier and service valvesestimated, ±44%

• Bi-flow, because on a heat pump the refrigerant runs in both directions and an ordinary one-way drier would be a restriction half the year. It is a small part that is easy to fit wrong.

Evacuation and refrigerant chargeestimated, ±45%

• Deep vacuum to boil off moisture, then weighed-in charge. Priced per ton because it scales with capacity and line length.
• A heat pump is less forgiving of a wrong charge than an air conditioner, because it has to work correctly in both directions and the correct charge is not the same seen from each.

Raised stand or pad for the outdoor unitestimated, ±49%

• More than an air conditioner needs, and for a reason: a heat pump runs in winter and sheds meltwater from the defrost cycle. Sitting flat on the ground it freezes into a block of ice around its own coil.
• Where it snows, it goes on a raised stand clear of the drift line. That is not a luxury item, it is what stops the unit destroying itself in February.

Refrigerant recovery from the old system

• Two hours with recovery equipment before anything is cut. EPA rules under Section 608 prohibit knowingly venting these refrigerants while servicing or disposing of equipment.

Removal, setting and connection

• Eighteen trade hours for a dual-fuel installation and twenty-four when the air handler is replaced too — two technicians for a long day, or a day and a half.
• The wage is official and regional; the hours are our estimate. There is no public productivity data for residential trades, so we say which half is which.

Old equipment removal and disposalestimated, ±49%

• Haulage and tipping, partly offset by scrap value on the copper and aluminium.

Start-up, charge verification, defrost and backup staging

• Three hours, which is more than an air conditioner needs, because there are two modes to verify and a defrost cycle to force and watch.
• This is also where the backup gets staged so it comes on when the heat pump genuinely cannot keep up rather than every time the thermostat is nudged. Getting that wrong is the commonest cause of a shocking first winter electricity bill.

Mechanical and electrical permitestimated, ±57%

• Higher than a straight equipment swap because there is normally an electrical permit as well as a mechanical one. Set by each jurisdiction with no national schedule, hence a band.

Not included in this dataset

Electrical panel or service upgrade

The all-electric figure assumes the panel has room and capacity for the backup feeder. When it does not, that is a separate job and frequently a large one — it is the single most common reason a heat pump quote lands far above expectation.

Ductwork repair or resizing

A heat pump moves noticeably more air than a furnace to deliver the same heat, so ducts that were adequate before can become the limiting factor. Checking them is part of a proper design; replacing them is a separate job.

Federal, state or utility incentives

Nothing on this page is netted off against any incentive. The federal 25C credit closed to property placed in service after 31 December 2025; state and utility programmes vary and change, and we do not track them.

A Manual J load calculation

The tonnage here is a screening estimate from square feet and climate. A heat pump is the case where a real load calculation earns its money, because the sizing has to satisfy heating as well as cooling.

Ductless mini split systems

A different product for a different problem — no ducts, one head per room. Priced on our mini split page.

Geothermal or ground-source heat pumps

Those need a loop field in the ground, which is drilling or excavation and is the majority of the cost. Nothing on this page applies to them.